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Author Topic: BREXIT - How Will It Affect Us/You  (Read 5905 times)

Offline Giles

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BREXIT - How Will It Affect Us/You
« on: June 29, 2016, 09:36:40 am »
BREXIT - How Will It Affect Us/You

I'm not going to get into the politics of this farce.  So this is not a political post, merely an attempt to let you know what will happen next

For the moment, the UK is still a member of the EU nothing really changes from a practical day to day shipment/tax etc point of view.

What will happen longer term, no one has the foggiest idea, hence the uncertainty in the money markets and stock exchanges

The UK has to invoke article 50 of the Lisbon Treaty, once this is done we have 2 years to negotiate exit terms.  Even then, this period can be extended with the agreement of all parties.

So, we have a minimum of 2 years when things will not fundamentally change from where we are now..

If the negotiations result in the then existing EU countries imposing import taxes etc on shipments from the UK, Iron Heart will set up an operation in a EU country.

Our retail pricing is pegged to the USD, so people paying in GBP or EUR are likely to see larger than normal fluctuations in price whilst the currencies try and find a stable level.

PS.  I wish that I did not have to write this post as I have better things to do with my time  :D
« Last Edit: June 29, 2016, 09:38:24 am by Giles »
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Offline tmg

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Re: BREXIT - How Will It Affect Us/You
« Reply #1 on: June 29, 2016, 10:28:20 am »
If Scotland get their way, that could be your EU base

Offline Dion

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Re: BREXIT - How Will It Affect Us/You
« Reply #2 on: June 29, 2016, 10:47:02 am »
...or Éire.

Offline Giles

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Re: BREXIT - How Will It Affect Us/You
« Reply #3 on: June 29, 2016, 10:50:51 am »
That is my current default.....
"OK face up to it - you're useless but generally pretty honest and straightforward . . . it's a rare combination of qualities that I have come to admire in you" - Geo 2011

Offline Giles

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Re: BREXIT - How Will It Affect Us/You
« Reply #4 on: July 15, 2016, 03:00:49 pm »
When (if) we trigger Article 50 we have 2 years to negotiate our exit. 

If my understanding is correct, we are not allowed to negotiate trade deals inside or outside of the EU whilst we are a member of the EU.  And until the 2 years are up after we trigger Article 50 we are still a member of the EU. 

What a monumental fuck up.....
"OK face up to it - you're useless but generally pretty honest and straightforward . . . it's a rare combination of qualities that I have come to admire in you" - Geo 2011

Offline Tone

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Re: BREXIT - How Will It Affect Us/You
« Reply #5 on: July 16, 2016, 11:07:02 am »
I'm going to go against the grain here, It could work in our favour as some shops drop the 20% VAT to help customers to any pending import duties that might accompany the shipment. That is, if your outside the EU.  ;)

Bring it on!

Offline Giles

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Re: BREXIT - How Will It Affect Us/You
« Reply #6 on: July 16, 2016, 12:37:56 pm »
There won't be any bringing it on for years.  We are in a state of complete flux.  We can't legally negotiate trade agreements with any other countries including EU countries until the 2 year period after we initiate article 50.  That is unless the EU are nice to us, and why on earth should they be, we have just pissed all over their parade?

My view is that Germany who is really the powerhouse behind the EU, will want to teach us a very hard lesson. 

I think things will be very tough for a few years....

Currently the Yen is a safe haven (though it has weakened a little over the last week or so), so in our case the cost base has gone up about 30% since Dec 2015.  If we have to open a second operation outside of the UK then that'll cost us.  Who ends up paying for those increased costs?  The customer!  So even if you do get your 20% VAT back (and who says it will stay at 20% anyway?) then the actual price may have increased 20% anyway.
« Last Edit: July 16, 2016, 02:34:51 pm by Giles »
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Online Graeme

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Re: BREXIT - How Will It Affect Us/You
« Reply #7 on: July 16, 2016, 04:32:15 pm »
Apologies in advance if this crosses the no politics line. If it does, then mods please delete the post.

This piece summarises the problems faced by the UK in negotiating a break from the EU. @Giles summarised most of its points in his posts above.

And this article argues that the UK will have to reapply to join the WTO after leaving the EU.

In short, lots of complicated trade issues need to be resolved in a short timeframe, and this is what's causing IH problems.

Offline Giles

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Re: BREXIT - How Will It Affect Us/You
« Reply #8 on: July 16, 2016, 04:36:06 pm »
I don't have a problem with that @Graeme I think we can discuss this from an apolitical point of view.
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Online Graeme

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Re: BREXIT - How Will It Affect Us/You
« Reply #9 on: August 28, 2016, 01:05:59 pm »
There's a piece on how Brexit will impact the UK's denim scene at Heddels.

The problem that companies are currently facing are down to the weakness in the Pound, which has pushed up costs of imported materials by 10% in the last few months, and the ongoing uncertainty about the political process.

Offline dylantbmayes

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Re: BREXIT - How Will It Affect Us/You
« Reply #10 on: August 28, 2016, 02:55:33 pm »
“Three months ago, Japanese yen was 195 yen to the pound; now it’s about 134 Japanese yen to the pound..."

This is true but not entirely caused by the weakened GBP...

JPY growth has been insane! It was up near 20% (YTD) prior to BREXIT (33% post).

It is one of the strongest performing currencies of 2016!
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Offline Megatron1505

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Re: BREXIT - How Will It Affect Us/You
« Reply #11 on: August 28, 2016, 07:34:42 pm »
The opinion parts of that opinion piece are quite presumptuous and extremely "London-centric". This from a bloke who's a self confessed raving lefty and voted to remain.

I dare say that the denim parts are valid, the author should have stuck with that theme.
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Online Graeme

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Re: BREXIT - How Will It Affect Us/You
« Reply #12 on: August 30, 2016, 03:37:00 am »
To be fair, most of the opinion pieces since the referendum haven't been great.

The immediate economic effects of Brexit have been the drop in the Pound against pretty much every currency by 10 to 15%, and uncertainty about the future relationship between the UK and EU, which is going to impact business planning.

Depending on what gets negotiated, potential issues could include:
If you want a bit more reading:

Online Graeme

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Re: BREXIT - How Will It Affect Us/You
« Reply #13 on: November 03, 2016, 06:50:50 pm »
It's all suddenly got quite interesting...

Just as it looked as though Theresa May was going to invoke Article 50 in the coming months, the High Court has ruled that Parliament has to vote on the resolution.

So rather than this being the ongoing situation.



There now has to be a debate on what form Brexit will take, and the possibility that it'll be held up in the Lords. Patience Wheatcroft argued that should happen if there wasn't a clear plan.

Ignoring calls from UKIP to sack the judges, this is a good thing. Government should have checks and balances to prevent it from making bad decisions. It doesn't always work, but I'd be happier with there being a conversation about form the UK's relationship with the EU takes, than for a small group of politicians to make the biggest decision of the last forty years in secret.

Online Graeme

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Re: BREXIT - How Will It Affect Us/You
« Reply #14 on: November 08, 2016, 06:49:21 pm »
@GuzziRob found this.

A Spanish MEP has proposed that UK citizens can opt into retaining their EU citizenship. This would enable such individuals to retain their freedom of movement and residency in the EU, along with voting rights for the European Parliament.

I don't know if it'll pass, but there have been noises from Brussels about allowing Brits to retain their EU citizenship post Brexit in one form or another.