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Author Topic: BREXIT - How Will It Affect Us/You  (Read 2568 times)

Online Giles

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Re: BREXIT - How Will It Affect Us/You
« Reply #15 on: November 08, 2016, 06:53:13 PM »
I don't want bloody voting rights.  I want t be able to move my shit across intra EU borders with zero hassle - sort of like it is now.....
"OK face up to it - you're useless but generally pretty honest and straightforward . . . it's a rare combination of qualities that I have come to admire in you" - Geo 2011

Offline Graeme

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Re: BREXIT - How Will It Affect Us/You
« Reply #16 on: December 05, 2016, 10:17:15 PM »
Here's an interesting take on the Article 50 case that's being heard in the Supreme Court.

http://www.prospectmagazine.co.uk/politics/supreme-court-government-brexit-appeal-article-50-revocable

The author, a QC, thinks that the important question to be answered isn't whether or not Article 50 can be invoked by Royal Prerogative or not, but whether the notice can be revoked once it's being issued.

If it can't be revoked, then issuing the notice of an intent to leave means that you're out regardless. It gives Parliament very little choice in whether to accept a deal on its own merits, as it'll be take it or leave it.

Conversely, if it is reversible, then Parliament says, "Actually, we think that sucks, and we'd rather stay."

My suspicion is that it would be revocable in practice, the EU is good at creatively interpreting its own rules, but it might not necessarily be in strictly legal terms. The wording of Article 50 doesn't include anything about cancelling it.

Offline Graeme

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Re: BREXIT - How Will It Affect Us/You
« Reply #17 on: January 10, 2017, 12:44:16 AM »
This blog post is by Dominic Cummings, who ran the Leave campaign. It's half fascinating, and half boring, because he's so long-winded. It's worth a look, but I skimmed the second half because it was dragging on.

https://dominiccummings.wordpress.com/2017/01/09/on-the-referendum-21-branching-histories-of-the-2016-referendum-and-the-frogs-before-the-storm-2/

Two things stick out.
  • He credits victory to a better digital strategy. That's probably true, the remain campaign didn't embrace it so heavily, but the leave vote skewed old, and hence less likely to be heavy users of social media.
  • He throws in a lot of mathematical terms, such as nonlinear. Given his background (he studied history, and works in political campaigns), I'm not convinced that he actually understands the terminology.
One of the major campaign themes, and controversies, was that EU membership costs the UK £350 million per week, and this blog admits that was a fabrication. It's based on the gross figure, ignoring the rebate, which roughly halves the contribution.

I also find the choice of figure interesting from a rhetorical standpoint. I suspect that number was focus grouped for impact. Three hundred and fifty million a week sounds bigger than, say, fifty million per day, or eighteen billion per year.